Weekly Mortgage Rate Commentary

In what should have been a quiet week for financial markets, turmoil reined. The Fed started the holiday-shortened week by slashing the Fed Funds rate to 3.5% from 4.25%. The official position was that the move was in response to the weakening economy, but there may have been another reason. A rogue trader in one of France's largest financial institutions orchestrated a $7 billion fraud. The Fed's move likely helped mitigate the damage from this fraud and the global impact of unwinding the trader's positions in various international markets. Mortgage rates experienced a whiplash effect, first dropping, and then bouncing back upward as the week ended.

In addition to dealing with the fallout from last week, this week has an extremely full calendar of economic data releases. New Home Sales on Monday will kick off the excitement, followed by Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday. Wednesday previews employment numbers with the volatile ADP Employment Report, along with advanced fourth quarter GDP and inflation data. Also on Wednesday, the Fed will release their formal policy statement and decision on interest rates, likely to be yet another cut. And as if that weren't enough action, Thursday will bring the Fed's favored measure of inflation - the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index - followed by the official Jobs Report on Friday.

What will make the end of the week particularly interesting is the inflation and jobs data coming out following the Fed's scheduled move on Wednesday. Will controlled inflation and/or higher unemployment make them look like heroes, who made the right moves over the past two weeks? Or...could healthy job growth or high inflation, which is likely to be exacerbated by cuts to the Fed Funds Rate, make the Fed look like goats? It's sure to be turbulent - so strap in, hold on, and stay tuned - and feel free to call me for updates as the week progresses